tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4058766287077382431.post9159704222726345948..comments2024-03-23T04:01:39.348-04:00Comments on Understanding Society: Many small causesDan Littlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15953897221283103880noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4058766287077382431.post-61465212589907759172009-06-02T11:03:11.591-04:002009-06-02T11:03:11.591-04:00Interesting post... what I think you're lacking, t...Interesting post... what I think you're lacking, though, is that the truth is almost certainly in between the possibilities that you present. Let's consider the 2nd Punic War (call it the "2PW") for a moment. Firstly, we can view the eventual defeat of Carthage in the 2PW as the inevitable result of Cathage's loss in the 1PW. If Rome and Cathage were evenly matched at the beginning of that war, then the fact that Rome entered the 2PW objectively stronger and Carthage entered objectively weaker than we need nothing else to explain the outcome.<br /><br />Except that's not all there is to the story... Hannibal almost single-handedly won the war. Of course, the Romans may have exaggerated the exploits and prowess of Hannibal (much as we Americans tend to exaggerate the exploits of OBL). Still Hannibal's heroic efforts to win the war argues strongly for the proposition that single events and even single individuals (singularities) can drastically alter the course of history.<br /><br />Should Hannibal, hurling his spear at the gates of Rome forever be a symbol of the powerlessness of the individual to alter the inevitable flows of History, or should his brilliant victory at Cannae teach us that individual actions can have profound consequences. I think the truth is that Hannibal could have won if a little luck had gone his way. A bumper crop in the Hills surrounding Rome may have allowed Hannibal to extend his Siege, perhaps indefinitely. The power gap between Rome and Carthage required more skill and more luck in order for Hannibal to come out on top, but the power gap couldn't eliminate the possibility.<br /><br />The systemic movers of History (the power gap) speak to our human need to craft theories and understand the world. Singularities speak to our need for Heroes. I think balancing these two forces as we try to understand what has happened in the past gets us somewhere close to the truth.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09523854314505634034noreply@blogger.com